TSP Weekly Tech Stock Update—July 13, 2024

This Week: AAPL/GOOGL new record highs, Elastic shares on the move, HUBS loses its takeover premium, Wolfe is bullish on MNDY, Microsoft improves its AI standing, AWS growth in the spotlight & more.

Hello from Rob…

—JP Morgan is forecasting Amazon (AMZN, $194.49) AWS revenue growth acceleration throughout 2024, powered by easing optimizations, new workload migrations, ramping generative AI monetization and favorable year-over-year comps.

JP Morgan’s AWS growth outlook:

Q2: +18% (accelerating from +17% in Q1)

Q3: +19%

Q4: +20%

The firm maintains its Amazon price target of $240. At the start of this week, the stock hit a new all-time high of $201.20.

— KeyBanc raised its Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR, $855.67) price target to $975 from $850, saying it expects the company to maintain 80%+ share on NVIDIA’s Hopper/Blackwell platforms in power solutions. The firm looks for Blackwell to provide Monolithic with a 40% ASP uplift versus Hopper as power requirements increase from 700W to 1000W.

Monolithic's position in AI and an improving traditional datacenter business should support enterprise data revenue of more than $1 billion in 2025, says KeyBanc.

On Thursday, Monolithic shares hit a new all-time high of $876.65. Way back in November 2015 (TSP #165), when the stock was trading around $64.50, we called out Monolithic as a “smaller chipmaker with promising growth prospects thanks to a new product cycle.” At the time, the 2015 consensus revenue estimate for Monolithic was $332 million. Today, the 2024 consensus revenue estimate stands at $2.07 billion, with the 2025 consensus at $2.51 billion.

*Inside This Issue: AI Driving Increased Cloud Spending

—Paid subscribers will receive the August 2024 PDF of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP #270) via email on Tuesday, August 13.

—Paid subscribers have access to the TSP Market Overview and TSP Portfolio Updates sections inside this issue.